Framework for Ecotoxicological Modeling of mCDR (FEMM)

FEMM v1.0 Cover

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Suggested Citation

Weighman, K., Jankowska, E., Andrews, M. G. Framework for Ecotoxicological Modeling of mCDR (FEMM) v1.0. doi: 10.5281/zenodo.18487758 (2026).

Revision History

FEMM v0.1 – July 2025
FEMM Draft – May 2025

💬 Expert Review Comment Themes

Acknowledgements

This work was made possible through the support of :

Executive Summary

Marine CDR (mCDR) strategies are emerging techniques that harness the ocean to capture and store carbon. While mCDR technologies could offer significant climate mitigation potential, their deployment introduces novel ecological uncertainties that require rigorous, science-based environmental risk assessment (ERA). The Framework for Ecotoxicological Modeling of mCDR (FEMM) addresses the need for mCDR ERA guidance. FEMM integrates statistical and mechanistic modeling tools into a modular, tiered framework for evaluating ecotoxicological risk and other exposure-mediated risks associated with mCDR projects. It supports both risk screening and advanced risk refinement when needed, thereby adapting to project specifics.

FEMM is intended to support a range of use cases, including project site selection and environmental monitoring design, as well as regulatory decision-making and Measurement, Reporting and Verification (MRV) environmental impact quantification. By combining established ecotoxicological tools in a flexible, adaptive, and scientifically grounded process, FEMM provides a practical approach to evaluating the ecotoxicological and exposure-mediated risks associated with proposed mCDR projects as well as the impacts of already-implemented projects. FEMM emphasizes flexibility, transparency, and the ability to adapt as new data and project types emerge. 

This document introduces:

  • Key potential environmental risks of ocean-based climate mitigation approaches such as OAE and DOCC.
  • FEMM, a guided approach to assessing ecotoxicological risk and other exposure-mediated risks, such as carbonate chemistry alterations, associated with mCDR projects, including both a screening-level risk assessment framework and refinement approaches to enable advanced risk assessment .
  • An overview of species sensitivity distributions (SSDs), a statistical approach to ERA which is recommended for adoption in screening-level mCDR project risk assessment. 
  • A case study applying the proposed screening-level risk assessment framework to construct a preliminary proof-of-concept SSD for increasing pH using existing datasets.
  • A case study demonstrating the utility of region-specific SSDs in refining screening-level risk assessments by constructing general, temperate, and tropical SSDs for nickel toxicity to marine organisms.
  • An overview of mechanistic modeling approaches to ERA which are recommended for adoption in advanced mCDR project risk assessment.
  • A case study demonstrating the application of mechanistic models to conduct an advanced risk assessment for a sensitive species using monitoring data from a real-world OAE project. 
  • Recommendations for future work that would meaningfully advance ERA for mCDR projects.